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You may have hear the terminus " endemic " used to describe disease , often in comparison with the terms " epidemic " and " pandemic . " Many health officials say that COVID-19 is likely transition frompandemicto endemic position in many countries . But what does that mean ?
More broadly , the term " endemic " refers to an being that ’s find out in a specific region . In ecology , that means a species that lives only in one geographic arena , like a plant or animal limited to an island , concord to theU.S. Geological Survey . However , in the setting of public health , " endemic " concern to a disease with a constant presence or " usual " number of infections in a specific area , according to theCenters for Disease Control and Prevention .
As viruses such as COVID-19 spread, they can become endemic in new regions.
" The technical definition is a disease that ’s at a steady country . It ’s there all the time,“Dr . Christopher J. Gill , a professor of global health at Boston University , narrate Live Science . " It ’s not really causing eruption , and it ’s not dying away . "
That concept , in turn , depends on the idea of an " epidemic " disease — one with greater - than - normal level of infection in a population , Gypsyamber D’Souza , an epidemiology professor at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health , evidence Live Science . ( An epidemic disease becomes " pandemic " if it diffuse over several state or the globe . )
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As viruses such as COVID-19 spread, they can become endemic in new regions.
autochthonal status also depends on the impingement a disease has on fellowship in a particular part , D’Souza said . " It means that there is enough resistance in the population that we have learned to know with that transmission , " she said . " We do n’t have surges of disease … that disrupt casual lifetime . "
Not every epidemic disease becomes endemic , however ; many just go away . " If you have an epidemic and you successfully contain and treat it and you are able to motor it to zero infection , you’re able to prevent it from becoming endemical , " D’Souza said . Examples include the 2005 H5N1 skirt flu and the 2002 - 2004 severe piercing respiratory syndrome ( SARS ) outbreaks .
A master of ceremonies of disease have become endemic in the U.S. , including respiratory malady such as flu andrespiratory syncytial virus(RSV ) , as well as many puerility disease . " Measles , mumps , three-day measles , chickenpox , group A streptococci [ Streptococci ] , pink eye — all of these things are just incessantly circulating , " Gill said . At the source of the COVID-19 pandemic , experts marvel whether the disease would rise quick in prevalence and disappear or eventually become endemic , though most predicted an autochthonic itinerary , Gill allege . At nearly three years into the pandemic , many expert say COVID-19 was endemic in the U.S. or soon to become so , as most people had some immunity from vaccination or picture , D’Souza said .
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The timing of that transition could vary according to the expert , however , as they assess how far contagion and death stage had fallen . " It ’s not an accurate science , " she said . " We ’re not give out to say this exact twenty-four hour period is when we have transition . " Meanwhile , epidemic infection level may carry on in other parts of the macrocosm even as a disease becomes endemic in another neighborhood .
Experts admonish that becoming endemic does n’t necessarily mean less - severe disease , although " generally , we ask pathogen to become less pathogenic over fourth dimension , " Gill say . Similarly , endemicity does n’t signify a disease has quit to be a public wellness problem , virologist and immunologist Matt Koci said in aNorth Carolina State Universitypost . " Smallpoxwas an indigenous disease that consistently killed 1 out of every 3 people it taint , " he aver .
Rarely , autochthonic diseases — particularlyinfluenza — can bring back to epidemic condition , Gill tell . " Occasionally , the influenza virus can mutate radically into something almost entirely unseen by the population , " he said . " And then you may have a totally disastrous flu pandemic , " as happened in the1918 influenza eruption , in which a new flu form kill or so 50 million people .
